Australia Faces Decline in Student Commencements but 2025 Target Remains Within Reach
2 Min Read
Australia’s international education sector has recorded a notable fall in new student commencements, yet government data suggests the country remains on course to meet its 2025 enrolment cap.
Figures from the Department of Education show international commencements fell 16% in the year to July 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. English language colleges (ELICOS) were particularly hard hit, with commencements plunging by almost 40%. The decline follows major policy changes, including a rise in student visa fees to AUD $2,000, on top of a steep 125% increase introduced only a year earlier.
Sector leaders warn that the reforms, enacted under Ministerial Direction 111, have fuelled closures, job losses, and declining interest in Australia as a study destination. Despite these setbacks, the department’s latest International Education Providers – Progress Against 2025 Indicative Allocations report suggests commencements will still reach 102% of the government’s target.
Under the National Planning Level (NPL) system, Australia set a 2025 cap of 270,000 new overseas student commencements. Current projections show the cap will not only be met but may be slightly exceeded. Public universities, with an allocation of 145,300 commencements, are expected to reach 95% of their target, while private universities and other higher education providers could surpass expectations, reaching 172% of their allocation. By contrast, the vocational education and training (VET) sector is forecast to achieve just 90% of its allocation.
Education minister Jason Clare defended the government’s more tightly managed system, stating that future caps will be monitored closely. He added that the new Australian Tertiary Education Committee (ATEC) will work directly with universities to ensure institutions meet but do not exceed their allocations by 2027.
Looking ahead, the government has announced that the cap will rise from 270,000 places in 2025 to 295,000 in 2026. While short-term pressures continue to weigh on providers, Australia’s long-term enrolment targets appear to be on track.
Source: THE PIE NEWS
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