CAS Issuances Rise 8% as UK Universities See First Major Recruitment Rebound in Two Years
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International student recruitment is showing clear signs of revival in the United Kingdom, with new data revealing an 8% year-on-year increase in CAS (Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies) issuances for the September 2025 intake. The analysis, based on Enroly data across more than half of UK institutions, marks the first coordinated recovery after two sluggish recruitment cycles.
While CAS issuances rose by 8%, acceptances and deposits surged by over 18%, suggesting the UK is processing more students but with heightened scrutiny. According to Katie Layt, director of growth and partnerships at Enroly, this year represents a “turning point” for the sector. She noted that universities are shifting from reactive to predictive admissions, supported by real-time data and improved decision-making systems.
The rebound comes amid increasing government oversight. Concerns around rapid expansion, visa fraud and student no-shows have pushed the Home Office to tighten compliance checks. UK Visas and Immigration is expected to roll out a red-amber-green compliance rating system that could introduce recruitment caps for underperforming institutions.
One of the key findings from Enroly’s report is the shift toward earlier processing. Nearly half of all CAS letters were issued before August, with analyst Dave Amor suggesting this reflects reduced reliance on last-minute confirmations and greater caution around late arrivals that may affect continuation rates. The University College London case, where additional CAS capacity had to be granted after demand exceeded allocation, further highlights sector-wide pressure.
The data also illustrates regional shifts. West Africa recorded the strongest rise in CAS issuances at over 70%, followed by North America, East Africa and South Asia. Declines, however, continued across the Middle East, Southeast Asia and East Asia, where affordability challenges and strengthening local education systems are reshaping student choices.
Segment-wise, postgraduate research saw the largest spike at 132%, while postgraduate taught programmes rose 18.9% and undergraduate growth stood at 5.5%. The agent landscape is also shifting, with the top 10 agents showing weaker conversion rates than both the average and direct applicants.
With CAS issuances for January 2026 already underway, universities appear to be carrying forward the proactive approach adopted this cycle—supported by improved data visibility, earlier planning and more structured compliance management.
Source: THE PIE NEWS
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